March 14, 2025
Spot Rates
Technical Support / Resistance:
Key Economic Data Releases:
Important Events We're Watching Next Week
Market Spotlight Yesterday, USDCAD rebounded from near 1 week lows climbing from 1.4359 up to 1.4452 before holding within a 1.4420/45 range for the balance of the session. Risk aversion flows dominated boosting the JPY, EUR, and GBP as equity indices saw substantial losses as the DJIA and NASDAQ neared 7 month lows. The USD trade-weighted index rebounded by 0.25% from near 5 month lows.
Overnight, USDCAD dropped from 1.4442 down to 1.4411 before testing 1.4437 during London and early NA trade. The pairing has moved lower on the back of broad risk-positive sentiment. The USD trade-weighted index tested 1 week highs overnight but has since fallen 0.50%. USDCAD has fallen to session lows @ 1.4376 – not far from weekly lows @ 1.4353.
U.S. Fed rate cut expectations have increased over the past month. The market is now pricing in a 32.1% chance of three interest rate cuts (taking the rate down to 3.75%), a 18.2% chance of four rate cuts to 3.50%, and a 29.1% chance of two rate cuts taking the key rate down to 4.00%. After the 25bp cut by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday taking its key rate down to 2.75%, BOC Governor Tiff Maclem stated that the bank would “proceed carefully with nay further changes” given the challenges of balancing the downside risk to economy with upside risk to inflation caused by tariffs.