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Daily Foreign Exchange Update

March 14, 2025

Spot Rates

  • USDCAD spot rate: 1.4387- 1.4392 (as at 7:31am PST)
  • Asia: 1.4421 to 1.4442
  • Europe: 1.4411 To 1.4437
  • North America: 1.4376 to 1.4437

Technical Support / Resistance:

  • S2 1.4245
  • S1 1.4353
  • R1 1.4450
  • R2 1.4485

Key Economic Data Releases:

  • U.S. Michigan Consumer sentiment index: 57.9 exp 63.1 prev 64.7
  • UoM 5 year consumer inflation expectations: 3.9% prev 3.5%

Important Events We're Watching Next Week

  • Mar 17, USA, Retail sales, NY Empire State MFG index
  • Mar 18, Canada, CPI
  • Mar 18, USA, Industrial production
  • Mar 19, USA, Fed interest rate, FOMC economic projections
  • Mar 20, USA, Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed mfg survey
  • Mar 21, Canada, Retail sales

Market Spotlight Yesterday, USDCAD rebounded from near 1 week lows climbing from 1.4359 up to 1.4452 before holding within a 1.4420/45 range for the balance of the session. Risk aversion flows dominated boosting the JPY, EUR, and GBP as equity indices saw substantial losses as the DJIA and NASDAQ neared 7 month lows. The USD trade-weighted index rebounded by 0.25% from near 5 month lows.

Overnight, USDCAD dropped from 1.4442 down to 1.4411 before testing 1.4437 during London and early NA trade. The pairing has moved lower on the back of broad risk-positive sentiment. The USD trade-weighted index tested 1 week highs overnight but has since fallen 0.50%. USDCAD has fallen to session lows @ 1.4376 – not far from weekly lows @ 1.4353.

U.S. Fed rate cut expectations have increased over the past month. The market is now pricing in a 32.1% chance of three interest rate cuts (taking the rate down to 3.75%), a 18.2% chance of four rate cuts to 3.50%, and a 29.1% chance of two rate cuts taking the key rate down to 4.00%. After the 25bp cut by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday taking its key rate down to 2.75%, BOC Governor Tiff Maclem stated that the bank would “proceed carefully with nay further changes” given the challenges of balancing the downside risk to economy with upside risk to inflation caused by tariffs.

  • Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 1% and 0.8% respectively. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 1.12% and 1.40% respectively after falling towards 7 month lows yesterday.
  • EURCAD is down 0.10% trading between 1.5610 and 1.5738 – near 7 year highs.
  • GBPCAD is down 0.47% trading between 1.8597 and 1.8711 – near 9 year highs.
  • JPYCAD is down 1% trading between 0.00965 and 0.00975 – still near 5 month highs.
  • Gold has hit all-time highs - up 0.25% trading between $2,980 - $3,005USD/oz.
  • Silver is down 0.37% trading between $33.63 - $34.08USD/oz – near 14 year highs.
  • Oil (WTI crude) is unchanged trading between $66.64 and $67.47 after testing 4 year lows @ $65 earlier this week.