Daily Foreign Exchange Update
April 11, 2025
Spot Rates
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.3900- 1.3905 (as at 8:06am PST)
- Asia: 1.3907 to 1.3975
- Europe: 1.3865 To 1.3985
- North America: 1.3838 to 1.3925
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.3750
- S1 1.3840
- R1 1.3925
- R2 1.3985
Key Economic Data Releases:
- U.S. producer price index m/m: -0.4% exp 0.2% prev 0.1% y/y: 2.7% exp 3.3% prev 3.2%
- U.S. PPI ex food & energy m/m: -0.1% exp 0.3% prev 0.1% y/y: 3.3% exp 3.6% prev 3.5%
- U.S. Michigan Consumer sentiment index: 50.8 exp 54.5 prev 57
- U.S. UoM 1 year consumer inflation expectations: 6.7% prev 5%
- U.S. UoM 5 year consumer inflation expectations: 4.4% prev 4.1%
Important Events We're Watching This Week
- April 15, Canada, CPI
- April 15, USA,Import/Export price index, NY Empire state mfg
- April 16, Canada, Bank of Canada interest rate
- April 16, USA, Retail sales, industrial production
- April 17, USA, Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed mfg survey
- April 18, Canada & USA, Good Friday
Market Spotlight Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.4110 down to 1.3960 before climbing back to 1.3990. The pairing subsequently dropped to 1.3945 – the lowest level since November 24th. The USD index dropped 2% towards its lowest level since September 2024. Equity markets sold off sharply again after the record gains seen Wednesday after Trump suddenly announced that the Reciprocal Tariffs on all countries were being paused for 90 days while tariffs on China climbed to 120%. Overnight, USD selling resumed with the USD trade-weighted index falling as much as 1.75% towards 2 year lows after China increased tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%. U.S. inflation data (PPI) was lower than expected (CPI data out yesterday was also lower than expected). USDCAD dropped to 1.3907 in Asia-Pacific trade before bouncing to 1.3985 in London. The pairing then fell sharply to 1.3838 – the lowest levels in nearly 6 months. The pairing bounced back to 1.3925 and subsequently dropped back to 1.3880. U.S. Fed rate cut expectations have increased sharply due to recession worries from U.S. tariff policies. The market is now pricing in a 32.8% chance of three interest rate cuts (taking the rate down to 3.75%), a 29.0% chance of four rate cuts to 3.50%, and a 18.7% chance of two rate cuts taking the key rate down to 4.00%. After the 25bp cut by the BOC last month taking its key rate down to 2.75%, BOC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the bank would “proceed carefully with nay further changes” given the challenges of balancing the downside risk to economy with upside risk to inflation caused by tariffs.
- Currently, the TSX is up 0.80% while the DJIA is down 0.20%. The S&P500 and NASDAQ are relatively flat on the day holding near 1 year lows.
- EURCAD is up 0.80% trading between 1.5662 and 1.5934 – near 5 year highs.
- GBPCAD has rebounded from 6 week lows - up 0.20% trading between 1.8107 and 1.8244.
- JPYCAD is up 0.40% trading between 0.00969 and 0.00976 – near 2 year highs.
- Gold is up 1.6% posting fresh all-time highs trading between $3,184 - $3,244USD/oz.
- Silver has rebounded by 15% since falling to 7 month lows earlier this week - up 2.28% today trading between $30.90 - $31.89USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is now up 10% since touching 4 year lows on Wednesday trading between $59.47 and $61.09.